How assaults against police officers unfold: identifying incident scenarios using latent class and latent transition analysis

Purpose This study aims to identify incident profiles within cases of assaults against police officers by examining how multiple suspect, officer and situational correlates combine into distinct assault scenarios. Design/methodology/approach Using 633 police case files of assaults against police officers from three police districts in Brussels, Belgium, we apply latent class analysis and latent transition analysis to identify and connect assault profiles at two stages: Dispatch precursors before officers arrive on-scene and police–citizen interactions that unfold only as officers arrive on-scene. Findings Results reveal two dispatch precursor profiles: violent residential interventions with teams including at least one female officer and nonviolent outdoor interventions involving male officers. Results identify three on-scene interaction profiles: intoxicated verbal escalation, immediate escalation and escalation to evade police. Further, findings show that violent residential interventions with teams including at least one female officer generally follow an immediate escalation, whereas the escalation of nonviolent outdoor interventions with male officers is more difficult to predict. Originality/value Prior work focuses on what factors make assaults against police officers more likely to happen. We build on existing research by focusing on how combinations of such factors create various assault scenarios and emphasize that assaults against police officers can be understood as a dynamic interplay between three essential components related to the suspect, the officer(s) and the situation. In doing so, we apply the criminal event perspective to assaults against police officers.