External Forcings Caused the Tripole Trend of Asian Precipitation During the Holocene

Abstract To investigate the evolution of precipitation over Asian continent in the Holocene and the associated mechanisms, we used a set of simulations of the transient climate evolution over the past 21,000 years (TraCE‐21ka), multimodel results from the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project Phase 4 (PMIP4), and proxy records in Asia. The TraCE‐21ka results showed a tripole pattern in suborbital‐scale precipitation trends over the Asian continent during the Holocene, with a trend of increase over southern parts of the monsoon regions and arid Central Asia (ACA), and a trend of decline over northern parts of the monsoon regions and their areas of transition with ACA. This tripole pattern was corroborated by proxy records from multiple regions and multimodel results from the PMIP4. Further analysis based on single‐forcing simulations of TraCE‐21ka indicated that influences from different external forcings were different on the Asian precipitation in the main rainy seasons in the Holocene and that their combined effects shaped the tripole pattern. In summer, orbital forcing, by reducing solar radiation in mid‐to‐high latitudes and weakening the land‐sea thermal contrast, has been the dominant factor in the long‐term evolution of precipitation in the monsoon region and West Asia. In winter and spring, changes in meltwater flux played dominant roles in intensifying local water cycle and horizontal moisture advection, which drove the trend of increase in precipitation in ACA. Additionally, changes in greenhouse gas concentration and continental ice sheet forcings both also contribute to the increase in precipitation in ACA.