Associations between sleep duration trajectories and risk of cardio-metabolic disease among middle-aged and older Chinese adults

BACKGROUND: The association of a single time-point measure of sleep duration with cardio-metabolic disease has been extensively studied, but few studies have focused on the impact of sleep duration trajectory. This study aims to model the sleep duration trajectory as predictors for the subsequent development of cardio-metabolic disease. METHODS: This study recruited a notably large population (n = 9883) of subjects aged at least 45 years from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), who participated in sequential surveys conducted in 2011, 2013, 2015, and 2018. Sleep duration trajectories were plotted using data of night sleep duration recorded at intervals from 2011 to 2015 by latent class trajectory model. The onset of cardio-metabolic diseases from 2015 to 2018 were confirmed and then the risk of different sleep duration trajectories on incident cardio-metabolic disease was examined using cox proportional hazards regression model. RESULTS: We identified four sleep duration trajectories. Compared to the normal-stable trajectory, the short-stable trajectory was significantly associated with higher risk of incident stroke (hazard ratio [HR], 1.32; 95 % confidence interval [CI], 1.02 to 1.70), dyslipidemia (HR, 1.22; 95%CI, 1.01 to 1.49), and diabetes (HR, 1.42; 95%CI, 1.13 to 1.78) within three years of follow-up, and the short-increasing trajectory predicted a higher risk of incident stroke (HR, 2.38; 95%CI, 1.25 to 4.55). CONCLUSIONS: Short sleep trajectory could increase the risk of incident stroke, dyslipidemia, and diabetes, and an increasing sleep trajectory was associated with increased risk of incident stroke among middle-aged and older Chinese adults.