How to Promote Low-Carbon Economic Development? A Comprehensive Assessment of Carbon Tax Policy in China

Facing the increasingly severe environmental problems, the development of a green and sustainable low-carbon economy has become an international trend. In China, the core issue of low-carbon economic development is effectively resolving the contradiction between the exploitation and utilization of fossil energy and greenhouse gas emissions (mainly carbon emissions). Based on the SAM matrix, we established a static Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate the impact of carbon tax policies on energy consumption, carbon emissions, and macroeconomics variables under 10, 20, and 30% emission reductions. Meanwhile, we analyze the impact of different carbon tax recycling mechanisms under the principle of tax neutrality. We find that the carbon tax effectively reduces carbon emissions, but it will negatively impact economic development and social welfare. A reasonable carbon tax recycling system based on the principle of tax neutrality can reduce the negative impact of carbon tax implementation. Among the four simulated scenarios of carbon tax cycle, the scenario of reducing residents’ personal income tax is most conducive to realizing the “double dividend” of carbon tax.