Systemic analysis of a developing plant community on the island of Surtsey

Based on our recently developed method to quantify Gunderson and Holling's adaptive cycle, we provide a holistic analysis of a vascular plant community on the volcanic island of Surtsey between 2000 and 2018. We identify one complete adaptive cycle during the study period, which reflects the system's transition from a classic pioneer to a grassland community. Our results support the hypothesis that nutrients brought to the island by breeding gulls are the main driver of this development. The study period includes the beginning of a second cycle, which deviates from the pattern described in the metaphor. Indeed, the cycle's exploitation phase is interrupted by a simultaneous decline of all three systemic variables. We can trace this phenomenon back to a severe drought in 2012. Furthermore, the method allows us to establish the systemic role of individual species during the maturation process.