Parapapillary Choroidal Microvasculature Predicts Diabetic Retinopathy Progression and Diabetic Macular Edema Development: A Three-Year Prospective Study

To determine the predictive value of the microcirculation of the optic nerve head by swept-source optical coherence tomography angiography for identifying individuals with high risk of diabetic retinopathy (DR) progression and diabetic macular edema (DME) development.Prospective observational cohort study.A total of 946 patients (1879 eyes) with type 2 diabetes mellitus were recruited who had no DR or mild nonproliferative DR at baseline, and no DME. All subjects underwent 3 × 3 mm swept-source optical coherence tomography angiography centered on the optic nerve head to generate angiograms in 4 layers: radial peripapillary plexus, superficial retinal capillary plexus (SCP), deep retinal capillary plexus, and choriocapillaris (CC). The CC flow deficit percentage (CC FD%), vessel density (VD), and perfusion density (PD) were quantified.During the 3 consecutive years of follow-up, 312 eyes (16.60%) experienced DR progression and 115 eyes (6.12%) developed DME. The DR progression was related to a lower VD of the SCP (relative risk per standard deviation decrease, 95% confidence interval): 1.30, 1.14-1.48; P < .001), a lower PD of the SCP (1.41, 1.24-1.60; P < .001), a lower VD of the radial peripapillary plexus (1.23, 1.08-1.40; P = .002), and an elevated CC FD% (1.62, 1.40-1.88; P < .001). The DME occurrence was associated with a lower VD of SCP (1.35, 1.09-1.66; P = .005), a lower PD of SCP (1.29, 1.05-1.59; P = .016), and a higher CC FD% (1.29, 1.03-1.61; P < .001). The CC FD% significantly improved the predictive power, with the increase of the C-statistic for DR progression and DME occurrence by 3.83% (P = .002) and 5.24% (P < .001), respectively.This study provides the first longitudinal evidence suggesting that peripapillary CC FD% can improve the prediction of DR progression and DME development beyond traditional risk factors.