Sunny days in Scotland: How bad could they be? Assessing heat vulnerability in urban areas of Scotland during events of extreme heat.

Existing research suggests that high-temperature extremes are now more likely to occur in Scotland due to effects of anthropogenic climate change, with substantial increases by 2050. Given this, as well as the susceptibility of urban populations to heat due to the Urban Heat Island effect, those areas or population groups most vulnerable to heat extremes need to be identified. Their identification will advise decision-makers on appropriate public policy and efficient allocation of resources, aiding adaptation and protection measures. Understanding the drivers of heat vulnerability will also enrich the environmental justice discourse. This dissertation develops a Heat Vulnerability Index (HVI) for Scotland (using geographic information systems), which addresses the 3 elements of vulnerability: Exposure, Sensitivity and Adaptive Capacity. With a specific focus on Exposure, two measurement methods are investigated and compared – Land Surface Temperature and Air Temperature. The model is applied and tested for Glasgow and Edinburgh Cities, identifying areas of high vulnerability which need to be prioritized when allocating financial (or other) resources. The primary limitation of this study has been the low accuracy of the air temperature data used, which prevented validation of the two temperature datasets and reduced understanding of the differences arising from the two. Future heat vulnerability assessment studies should focus in acquiring improved data for Exposure derivation, in HVI validation and in expanding both spatially (e.g. rural environments) and temporally (e.g. nighttime). Heat vulnerability research is vital in the future if the effects of heat hazards and climate change are to be minimized.