A Causal Mechanism of Policy Innovation: The Reform of Colombia’s Oil-Rents Management System

This article analyzes policy innovation in Colombia, through the adoption of a new centralized oil-rent management system in 2011, after 20 years of decentralized policies. Using a policy-design framework, we identify a causal mechanism linking the opening of a policy window to policy change as a combination of the emergence of a new policy network, the adoption of a new policy paradigm and the selection of a new instruments mix. Drawing on Bayesian statistics, the 11 tests conducted on the causal mechanism show the importance of State resources of information, authority, treasury and organization to assess the outcome of policy change.