Prognosis of reflective pavement cracking development with Bayesian updating and surrogate models

The main objective of this study is to establish an integrated prognostic method for predicting the development of thermal-induced reflective cracking in asphalt overlay on concrete pavement. The integrated prognosis process for crack growth is developed on the modified Paris' law and includes three steps: (1) calculation of J-integral; (2) Bayesian updating of crack growth parameters and (3) prediction of remaining life. Finite element modelling (FEM) was conducted to calculate J-integrals at different crack depths and cold weather conditions. A surrogate model was built based on the original Kriging method and it shows high accuracy in predicting J-integrals from maximum air temperature, temperature drop and crack depth. The Bayesian updating process starts from the laboratory-measured distribution of fracture model parameters (A and n) in Paris' Law and converges to the true values to match the measured crack depths at different loading cycles from field inspection. On the other hand, the consideration of material damage in asphalt overlay avoids over-estimation of remaining loading cycles for reflective cracking to reach the pavement surface. Further study is recommended to accurately assess in-situ pavement modulus and detect crack depth over concrete joints for implementation of the proposed prognostics method.