Chronology construction in the borderlands: Bayesian modelling of Potomac Valley settlement histories

Bayesian modelling of radiocarbon dates to construct detailed chronologies has become a key methodology in North America's ‘historic turn,’ though the Middle Atlantic has seen few efforts to apply these techniques. Drawing from 70 legacy dates and 25 new assays, this study develops Bayesian chronological models for 10 Late Woodland (AD 900-1600) sites in the Potomac Valley. Our goal is to assess how the arrival of Luray communities impacted the region's settlement history. During the Late Woodland period Native communities tied to three cultural traditions established a series of towns in the Potomac Valley, at times close to one another. With evidence of population movements, intergroup violence, and coalescent communities, the Late Woodland Potomac Valley appears to have represented a dynamic borderland during these centuries. The chronology developed in this study points toward a landscape of settlements we have labelled Persistent Places, Unsettled Settlements, and Transitory Towns.