热带气旋
气候学
环境科学
大气科学
全球变暖
气候变化
海洋学
地质学
作者
Kaiyue Shan,Danyang Wang,Pao‒Shin Chu,Xiping Yu,Fengfei Song
出处
期刊:Nature
[Springer Nature]
日期:2023-09-27
卷期号:623 (7985): 83-89
被引量:11
标识
DOI:10.1038/s41586-023-06544-0
摘要
Abstract Intense tropical cyclones (TCs), which often peak in autumn 1,2 , have destructive impacts on life and property 3–5 , making it crucial to determine whether any changes in intense TCs are likely to occur. Here, we identify a significant seasonal advance of intense TCs since the 1980s in most tropical oceans, with earlier-shifting rates of 3.7 and 3.2 days per decade for the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, respectively. This seasonal advance of intense TCs is closely related to the seasonal advance of rapid intensification events, favoured by the observed earlier onset of favourable oceanic conditions. Using simulations from multiple global climate models, large ensembles and individual forcing experiments, the earlier onset of favourable oceanic conditions is detectable and primarily driven by greenhouse gas forcing. The seasonal advance of intense TCs will increase the likelihood of intersecting with other extreme rainfall events, which usually peak in summer 6,7 , thereby leading to disproportionate impacts.
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