Spatial correlation network pattern and evolution mechanism of natural gas consumption in China—Complex network-based ERGM model

Based on network analysis and exponential random graph analysis methods (ERGM), the spatial network pattern of gas consumption and its evolution mechanism are investigated using Chinese inter-provincial panel data from 2008 to 2021. This paper shows that the spatial association strength level of natural gas consumption shows an enhanced spatiotemporal evolution. Network density is enhanced. Hierarchy decreases in a stepped way, the network efficiency increases in a fluctuating way, the redundant relation decreases, and the number of its bidirectional spillover relation increases year by year. The eastern seaboard is an economically developed region which is in the “net benefit” position. The provinces of the Tianjin, Hebei, and Shandong are the “two-way spillover” segments. Giving full play to the advantage of the balance between local markets and foreign markets gas consumption. Fujian, Chongqing, Inner Mongolia, Shanxi and Hubei are in the “broker” segment, which tends to concentrate on natural gas consumption outside the segment by their resource endowments. The block of “net spillover” involves the risk of carbon transfer and it should be more responsible for energy saving and carbon reduction; The convergence of per capita economic development, the size of population, industrial structure and urbanization rate leads to selective preferences for inter-provincial natural gas consumption. The large population sizes of provinces have “economies of scale” and “local market effects”, which prefer to deploy natural gas. Carbon emission linkage network is the most important for the formation of spatial network patterns of natural gas consumption, followed by the influence of economic linkage networks and land proximity. Less stringent environmental regulations and an open regional environment are conducive to the formation of a network of spatial correlations in natural gas consumption. Accordingly, new ideas and policy recommendations for inter-provincial emission reduction are finally proposed.