Can We Use Lung Function Thresholds and Respiratory Symptoms to Identify Pre-COPD? A Prospective, Population-based Cohort Study

Rationale: The term ‘pre-COPD’ refers to individuals at high-risk of developing Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) who do not meet conventional spirometric criteria for airflow obstruction. New approaches to identifying these individuals are needed, particularly in younger populations. Objective: To determine whether lung function thresholds and respiratory symptoms can be used to identify individuals at-risk of developing COPD. Methods: The Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study is a population-based cohort first studied in 1968 (age 7). Respiratory symptoms, pre- and post-bronchodilator (BD) spirometry, diffusing capacity and static lung volumes were measured on a subgroup at age 45, and incidence of COPD was assessed at age 53. For each lung function measure, z-scores were calculated using Global Lung Initiative references. The optimal threshold for best discrimination of COPD incidence was determined by the unweighted Youden Index. Measurements and Main Results: Among 801 participants who did not have COPD at age 45, the optimal threshold for COPD incidence by age 53 was pre-BD FEV1/FVC z-score < -1.264, corresponding to the lowest 10th percentile. Those below this threshold had 36-fold increased risk of developing COPD over an eight-year follow-up period (RR 35.8, 95%CI 8.88 to 144), corresponding to a risk difference of +16.4% (95%CI 3.7-67.4). The sensitivity was 88% and specificity 87%. Positive and negative likelihood ratios were 6.79 and 0.14, respectively. Respiratory symptoms, post-BD spirometry, diffusing capacity and static lung volumes did not improve on the classification achieved by pre-BD FEV1/FVC alone. Conclusion: Our findings support the inclusion of pre-BD spirometry in the physiological definition of pre-COPD and indicate that pre-BD FEV1/FVC at the 10th percentile accurately identifies individuals at high-risk of developing COPD in community-based settings.