Voting with Their Feet: Democratic Backsliding and Market-Minded Migration - Evidence from Israel and Europe

Using a comparative framework, the study examines how variations in political regimes across Israel and Europe shape patterns of international migration.In both contexts, episodes of democratic backsliding serve as quasi-exogenous shocks that reveal the causal link between institutional erosion and outward mobility.In Israel, the origin of democratic backsliding lies in a corruption shock-the criminal indictment of the prime minister-which escalated into an executive-judicial shock as the government launched an anti-democratic judicial overhaul.This confrontation between the executive and judiciary provides a natural experiment for identifying how institutional breakdowns shape migration decisions.In Europe, the origin of democratic backsliding stems from a "Syrian shock"-a massive refugee inflow that strained administrative capacity, polarized politics, and weakened liberal institutions.The resulting governance erosion triggered emigration responses structurally like those observed in Israel.Using a difference-in-differences (DiD) estimation, the study identifies causal effects of democratic erosion on migration flows.Across both settings, out-migration emerges as a market-minded response to illiberal regime change-a behavioral signal of sensitivity to policies that features nationalizing industries, restrict free speech, and undermine the rule of law.Together, the Israeli and European experiences demonstrate that illiberal governance functions as a systemic push factor for emigration, beyond standard economic explanations.