Finerenone for Heart Failure and Risk Estimated by the PREDICT-HFpEF Model

Importance Patients with heart failure (HF) and mildly reduced ejection fraction (HFmrEF) or preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) have a spectrum of risk, and the effect of therapies may vary by risk. Objectives To validate the Prognostic Models for Mortality and Morbidity in HFpEF (PREDICT-HFpEF) in the phase 3 randomized clinical trial Finerenone Trial to Investigate Efficacy and Safety Superior to Placebo in Patients With Heart Failure (FINEARTS-HF) and to evaluate the effect of finerenone, compared with placebo, across the spectrum of risk in these patients. Design, Setting, and Participants The FINEARTS-HF trial was conducted across 653 sites in 37 countries. Participants were adults 40 years and older with symptomatic HF and left ventricular EF of 40% or greater randomized between September 2020 and January 2023. Intervention Finerenone (titrated to 20 mg or 40 mg) or placebo. Main Outcomes and Measures The 3 PREDICT-HFpEF risk scores for the composite outcome of cardiovascular death or HF hospitalization, cardiovascular death, and all-cause death, respectively, were calculated. Predicted risk was compared with observed outcomes. Model performance was assessed using the Harrell C statistic. The rates of the predicted outcomes (plus the composite of cardiovascular death and worsening HF events, which was the primary end point in the trial) were examined according to quintiles of risk score, as was the effect of finerenone according to risk quintiles. Results A total of 6001 patients (mean [SD] age, 72 [9.6] years; 3269 male [54.5%]) were randomized in the FINEARTS-HF trial. The C statistics for cardiovascular death or HF hospitalization, cardiovascular death, and all-cause death at 2 years were 0.71 (95% CI, 0.69-0.72), 0.68 (95% CI, 0.66-0.71), and 0.69 (95% CI, 0.67-0.71), respectively. The risk of the composite outcomes was approximately 8- to 10-fold higher in those in the highest compared with the lowest risk quintile. The relative risk reduction with finerenone compared with placebo was consistent across the spectrum of risk for all outcomes examined (eg, interaction P value for primary outcome = .24). Conclusions and Relevance Results of the FINEARTS-HF randomized clinical trial demonstrate that the PREDICT-HFpEF models performed well in terms of calibration and discrimination. Baseline risk did not modify the benefit of finerenone. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04435626