Hydrology, vegetation, and soil properties as key drivers of soil organic carbon in coastal wetlands: A high-resolution study

Coastal wetlands are important blue carbon ecosystems that play a significant role in the global carbon cycle. However, there is insufficient understanding of the variations in soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and the mechanisms driving these ecosystems. Here we analyze a comprehensive multi-source dataset of SOC in topsoil (0-20 cm) and subsoil (20-100 cm) across 31 coastal wetlands in China to identify the factors influencing their distribution. Structural equation models (SEMs) reveal that hydrology has the greatest overall effect on SOC in both soil layers, followed by vegetation, soil properties, and climate. Notably, the mechanisms driving SOC density differ between the two layers. In topsoil, vegetation type and productivity directly impact carbon density as primary sources of carbon input, while hydrology, primarily through seawater salinity, exerts the largest indirect influence. Conversely, in subsoil, hydrology has the strongest direct effect on SOC, with seawater salinity also influencing SOC indirectly through soil and vegetation mediation. Soil properties, particularly pH, negatively affect carbon accumulation, while climate influences SOC indirectly via its effects on vegetation and soil, with a diminishing impact at greater depths. Using Random Forest, we generate high-resolution maps (90 m × 90 m) of topsoil and subsoil carbon density (