Beyond heuristics, biases and misperceptions: the biological foundations of momentum (hot hand)

The belief in momentum and the hot hand has often been attributed to misperception and biased judgment. Here we review the major theoretical and empirical advances in the investigation of the success breeds success processes, and demonstrate that the term momentum has been uncritically applied in a wide range of domains to denote various manifestations of streakiness. In the first part of the paper we review three lines of research regarding the influence of success on (a) the performer's psychological state, (b) the performer's and observer's behavior and (c) the subsequent success. We highlight the fact that research on momentum has rather overlooked several essential theories. Thus, in the second part, we integrate momentum-based behaviors and beliefs with the relevant biological and physiological literature. We conclude that in human competitions, like in nature, winners experience psychophysiological responses to success, and project their recent victory onto their surroundings by demonstrating aggressiveness, dominance and determination. The result is that both performers and observers are evolutionarily wired to react to success in competitive situations. Consequently, the term psychophysiological momentum is fitting in the context of sports competitions.