Prediction of technically difficult endoscopic submucosal dissection for large superficial colorectal tumors: a novel clinical score model

Background and Aims Endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) is a promising technique for removing superficial GI tumors, but ESD is technically difficult. The aim of this study was to establish a clinical score model for grading technically difficult colorectal ESD. Methods Data on patients, lesions, and outcomes of colorectal ESD at 2 centers were analyzed. The objective parameter of successful ESD within 60 minutes was set as an endpoint to evaluate the difficulty. Independent predictors of difficulty in the derivation cohort were identified by multiple logistic regression analysis and used to develop a clinical score. We validated the score model in the validation cohort. Results The clinical score comprised tumor size of 30 to 50 mm (1 point) or ≥50 mm (2 points), at least two-thirds circumference of the lesion (2 points), location in the cecum (1 point), flexure (2 points) or dentate line (1 point), and laterally spreading tumor nongranular lesions (1 point). Areas under the receiver operator characteristic curves for the score model were comparable (derivation [.70] vs internal validation [.69] vs external validation [.69]). The probability of successful ESD within 60 minutes in easy (score = 0), intermediate (score = 1), difficult (score = 2-3), and very difficult (score ≥4) categories were 75.0%, 51.3%, 35.6%, and 3.4% in the derivation cohort; 73.3%, 47.9%, 31.8%, and 16.7% in the internal validation cohort; and 79.5%, 66.7%, 43.3%, and 20.0% in the external validation cohort, respectively. Conclusions This clinical score model accurately predicts the probability of successful ESD within 60 minutes and can be applied to grade the technical difficulty before the procedure. Endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) is a promising technique for removing superficial GI tumors, but ESD is technically difficult. The aim of this study was to establish a clinical score model for grading technically difficult colorectal ESD. Data on patients, lesions, and outcomes of colorectal ESD at 2 centers were analyzed. The objective parameter of successful ESD within 60 minutes was set as an endpoint to evaluate the difficulty. Independent predictors of difficulty in the derivation cohort were identified by multiple logistic regression analysis and used to develop a clinical score. We validated the score model in the validation cohort. The clinical score comprised tumor size of 30 to 50 mm (1 point) or ≥50 mm (2 points), at least two-thirds circumference of the lesion (2 points), location in the cecum (1 point), flexure (2 points) or dentate line (1 point), and laterally spreading tumor nongranular lesions (1 point). Areas under the receiver operator characteristic curves for the score model were comparable (derivation [.70] vs internal validation [.69] vs external validation [.69]). The probability of successful ESD within 60 minutes in easy (score = 0), intermediate (score = 1), difficult (score = 2-3), and very difficult (score ≥4) categories were 75.0%, 51.3%, 35.6%, and 3.4% in the derivation cohort; 73.3%, 47.9%, 31.8%, and 16.7% in the internal validation cohort; and 79.5%, 66.7%, 43.3%, and 20.0% in the external validation cohort, respectively. This clinical score model accurately predicts the probability of successful ESD within 60 minutes and can be applied to grade the technical difficulty before the procedure.