Predicting Atrial Fibrillation with High Risk of Embolization with Atrial Strain and NT-proBNP

The aim of the study was to determine markers of atrial dysfunction in patients with cryptogenic stroke to predict episodes of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation with high risk of embolization (HpAF). We classified patients included in the Crypto-AF study, Cryptogenic Stroke registry, to detect paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (pAF) with wearable Holter, according to the longest episode of pAF in three groups: without pAF detection, episodes of pAF shorter than 5 h, and episodes of pAF longer than 5 h (HpAF). Atrial dysfunction surrogates were evaluated: EKG pattern, Holter record and echocardiography parameters (left atria volume (LAVI), and peak atrial longitudinal and contraction strain (PALS and PACS). The level of N-terminal pro b-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) was determined. All patients were followed for 2 years to detect pAF and stroke recurrence. From 308 patients, 253 patients with high quality Holter analysis were selected. The distribution was No pAF 78.6% (n = 199), pAF < 5 h 7.9% (n = 20), and HpAF > 5 h 13.4% (n = 34). Age of the patients and combination of PALS and NT-proBNP independently predicted HpAF OR 1.07 (1.00; 1.15) and OR 3.05 (1.08; 8.60) respectively. The validity of PALS and NT-proBNP to detect patients at risk of HpAF was higher than the validity of age (AUC 0.82, sensitivity 78.95%, specificity 63%). Patients with PALS < 25% and NT-proBNP > 283 pg/ml had more detection of pAF during follow-up 35% vs. 5.1% OR 2.33 (1.05-5.13) (p < 0.001). Multimodal assessment of atrial dysfunction with PALS and NT-proBNP improved the prediction of pAF episodes with high embolic risk in patients with cryptogenic stroke.