Expected Value Decision Making

This chapter describes a method for analyzing clinical decisions based on expected value calculations. The method uses a decision tree to represent the structure of the decision problem. The nodes in the decision tree correspond to the decision alternatives (e.g., choice of treatment) and the chance events (e.g., treatment outcome) in the problem. Decision analysis calculates a number that reflects the value of each decision alternative. The goal of the analysis is to determine the expected values for each alternative from the perspective of the person making the decision. The chapter illustrates this method with an extended example in which the decision maker — in this case, a patient — provides the subjective viewpoint for assigning probabilities to the uncertainties in the problem.