授权
2019年冠状病毒病(COVID-19)
人口经济学
基线(sea)
人口学
百分点
医学
业务
地理
政治学
经济
财务
社会学
病理
法学
传染病(医学专业)
疾病
作者
Sofia Berto Villas-Boas,James W. Sears,J. Miguel Villas-Boas,Vasco Villas-Boas
出处
期刊:Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory - medRxiv
日期:2020-05-26
被引量:14
标识
DOI:10.1101/2020.05.23.20111211
摘要
Abstract The recent spread of COVID-19 across the U.S. led to concerted efforts by states to flatten the curve through the adoption of stay-at-home mandates that encourage individuals to reduce travel and maintain social distance. Combining data on changes in travel activity with COVID-19 health outcomes and state policy adoption timing, we characterize nationwide changes in mobility patterns, isolate the portion attributable to statewide mandates, and link these reductions to changes in COVID-19 health outcomes. We find evidence of dramatic nationwide declines in mobility prior to adoption of any statewide mandates. Once states adopt a mandate, we estimate further mandate-induced declines between 2.1 and 7.0 percentage points relative to pre-COVID-19 baseline levels. Controlling for pre-treatment changes in mobility, we estimate mandate-induced declines of 0.13-0.17 fewer deaths and 5.6-6 fewer hospitalizations per 100,000 residents, equivalent to 23-30,000 averted deaths in adopting states for the months of March and April and death rates 42-54% lower than in the absence of policies. These estimates represent a likely lower bound on the health impacts of stay-at-home mandates, and our findings for the health impacts of early mobility reductions convey important policy implications for re-opening.
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