Examining the relationship between construction fatalities and the construction economy in China: a three-decade analysis

Purpose The fluctuation of construction fatalities is influenced by both urbanization and economic levels. This study aims to understand the impact of Chinese construction economy development on construction accidents, providing valuable insights for enhancing construction safety and promoting sustainable development in construction. Design/methodology/approach The Kuznets curve model, multiple linear regression model, and data envelopment analysis (DEA) model are employed to process data sets spanning from 1992 to 2021 for examining the relationship between construction fatalities and the construction economy in China. Findings Significant correlations have been found between construction fatalities and the construction economy in China. Over the past three decades, as the total output value of construction increased, there have been upward, downward, and downward trends in per capita construction area, the mortality rate per million square meters, and the mortality rate per ten thousand persons respectively. However, it is worth noting that since 2015, there has been a slight upward trend in the fitted U-shaped curve depicting the relationship between the mortality rate per ten thousand persons and the construction economy. This specific trend necessitates the attention of construction safety policymakers. The growth of the construction economy is found to exhibit negative, positive, and positive correlations with the number of construction fatalities, construction area, and the number of employed persons respectively. The changing trends observed in the Kuznets curve model analysis align with the evaluation results obtained from the DEA-based model. Originality/value The research offers effective means to identify superior and inferior performance in macro construction safety, providing valuable references for construction safety policymakers to design effective safety strategies and enhance work safety conditions.