The Role of Anthropogenic Climate Change on March–April–May (MAM) Drought Trends Across Global Land

ABSTRACT Understanding the influence of human‐induced climate change on drought is critical for addressing global challenges. This study uses the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) to identify detection and attribution of global drought patterns during the March–April–May (MAM) season. SPI focuses on rainfall, while SPEI accounts for both Precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. We analysed spatial trends using ensemble mean data from 15 global climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Simulations incorporating both natural and anthropogenic forcings (ALL) were compared with those limited to natural forcings (NAT) to evaluate human impacts on drought patterns. Results based on SPI from both observational data (OBS) and ALL simulations reveal wetting trends in Southwest Asia, South America, Eastern Europe, and Central Africa, and drying trends in Northwestern Europe, Southeastern China, India, North America, East Africa, and Australia. SPEI shows wetting in Northeast Asia, Europe, Southeastern North America, and Northwest Africa, with drying in North America, Southeastern Africa, Europe, and Southeastern China. Significantly, the drying trends in ALL simulations are stronger than in NAT, highlighting anthropogenic climate change as a key driver of worsening drought patterns. Detection analysis confirms a strong ALL signal in SPI and SPEI observations, while NAT remains undetected. Lastly, Severe droughts (indices < −2) were examined, in terms of likelihood ratio in All and NAT, show human activities significantly influence precipitation in Southeast Asia, tropical rainforests, and East Africa, with temperature variations driving droughts in Central Asia and other tropical regions.