The clockwork of spring: bud dormancy timing as a driver of spring leaf-out in temperate deciduous trees

The initiation of spring leaf-out is a critical determinant of the growing season in trees, affecting primary production and species interactions in forest ecosystems. Variations in the timing of leaf-out among tree species are linked to their differential progression of bud dormancy. However, identifying reliable markers for bud dormancy has been challenging, leaving the connection between the timing of autumn leaf senescence, bud dormancy and spring leaf-out unclear. To test whether species initiating dormancy release earlier also exhibit earlier leaf senescence in autumn and earlier leaf-out in spring, we estimated the dates of peak dormancy depth (PDD), senescence timing and spring leaf-out across various species, locations and experimental conditions in Central Europe. PDD was defined as the date when the maximum thermal sum was required for leaf-out, whereas leaf senescence was assessed through the decrease in leaf greenness. Our findings reveal that PDD timing is a more accurate predictor of species-level differences in spring leaf-out dates than the timing of leaf senescence, the latter being a poor proxy for PDD. The observed temporal asynchrony between PDD and senescence was linked to dormancy induction showing species-specific sensitivity to temperature variations. Conversely, the timing of leaf senescence showed a consistent reaction to temperature changes across all species. These findings suggest that the physiological processes within buds and leaves during autumn are governed by distinct environmental cues, with the bud dormancy process serving as a more reliable predictor of spring phenological differences among forest tree species than does autumn leaf senescence.