Ecological Functional Zoning and Multi‐Scenario Prediction in the Core Economic Region of a Tropical Island: A Case Study of the Haikou Economic Circle, China

ABSTRACT Ecological zoning, by accurately identifying regional ecological issues, supports the mitigation of ecological and environmental challenges brought by rapid urbanization. It plays a crucial role in advancing national ecological civilization and high‐quality urban development. Taking the rapidly developing Haikou Economic Circle within the Hainan Free Trade Port as a case study, this research employs the Ecosystem Service Value (ESV) Equivalent Factor Method, Landscape Ecological Risk (LER) Index, and Cellular Automata (CA)–Markov models to analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics and spatial coupling of ESV and LER in the Haikou Economic Circle from 2010 to 2025. Based on this analysis, ecological zones are identified, and spatial changes in ecological zoning are simulated under different scenarios for 2030 and 2035. Results indicate that forest and cropland were the dominant land‐use types in the study area from 2010 to 2025. Land‐use changes during this period were characterized by continuous declines in forest and cropland, accompanied by sustained increases in construction land and unused land. The study area's ESV ranged from 37.775 to 38.603 billion yuan and was composed mainly of medium‐to‐low‐value zones, accounting for approximately 92% of the total area. ESV exhibited a continuous declining trend from 2010 to 2025, with a total reduction of 828 million yuan. Similarly, LER was dominated by medium‐to‐low‐risk zones and showed a sustained decreasing trend, with the area of low‐risk zones expanding over time. The results of ecological zoning indicate that water land mainly correspond to the Ecological Protection Zone (high ESV–high LER, HH), while construction land mainly corresponds to the Ecological Improvement Zone (low ESV–low LER, LL), which are the main landscape types driving the positive spatial correlation between ESV and LER; forests mainly correspond to the Ecological Prevention Zone (high ESV–low LER, HL), reflecting their higher ecological service supply capacity and stronger risk resistance ability. Future scenario simulations show that compared with the natural development scenario (NDS), the management measures of the ecological protection scenario (EPS) can effectively slow down the trend of ecosystem service loss and increase in ecological risks.