Effectiveness of hysteroscopic resection of a uterine caesarean niche can be predicted: a prospective cohort study

Abstract This study aimed to develop and validate a model for the preoperative prediction of the effectiveness of hysteroscopic resection of a uterine cesarean niche in patients with postmenstrual spotting. The predictive model was developed in a primary prospective cohort consisting of 208 patients with niche treated by hysteroscopic resection. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to develop the predictive model, which incorporated preoperative menstrual characteristics and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) findings. Surgical efficacy was defined as a decrease in postmenstrual spotting duration of at least 3 days at the 3-month follow-up compared with baseline. The predictive model was presented with a nomogram, and the performance was assessed with respect to its calibration, discrimination, and clinical use. Internal validation was performed using tenfold cross-validation. The predictive factors in the final model were as follows: preoperative menstrual duration, thickness of the residual myometrium (TRM), length, TRM/thickness of the adjacent myometrium ratio, angle γ, area, and presence of a lateral branch of the niche. The model showed good performance in predicting the effectiveness of hysteroscopic niche resection. Incorporating the preoperative duration of the menstrual period and MRI findings of the niche into an easy-to-use nomogram facilitates the individualized prediction of the effectiveness of a hysteroscopic niche resection by 26 Fr resectoscope, but multicenter prospective studies are needed to validate it.