输出间隙
菲利普斯曲线
经济
膨胀(宇宙学)
失业
计量经济学
变量(数学)
产量(工程)
凯恩斯经济学
通货膨胀率
货币政策
宏观经济学
数学
热力学
物理
数学分析
理论物理学
作者
James A. McNeil,Gregor W. Smith
摘要
The all-gap Phillips curve (PC) explains inflation by expected inflation and an activity variable such as output or the unemployment rate, but with both inflation and the activity variable measured relative to their stochastic trends and thus as gaps. We study this relationship with minimal auxiliary assumptions and under rational expectations (RE). We show restrictions on an unobserved components model that identify the PC parameters, first with an autonomous output gap and second with output and inflation gaps following a VAR. For the United States, United Kingdom, and Canada both cases yield all-gap PCs with slopes of the expected signs, but there is little support for the restrictions implied by RE.
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