Discerning the process of cultivated land governance transition in China since the reform and opening-up-- Based on the multiple streams framework

Cultivated land is a key resource for human survival and development. Understanding what has promoted the cultivated land governance transition (CLGT) is enlightening to improve cultivated land governance (CLG), then cope with the problems closely related to cultivated land that challenge the sustainable development of human societies, of critical importance. Based on the concept of transition, this paper constructs a theoretical model of the CLGT in China, designs an evaluation index system of CLG, and uses the elbow-kmeans method to identify the cycle and turning points of the CLGT in China from the reform and opening-up to 2020. Then, it introduces the multiple streams framework to summarize the paths of the CLGT. The results indicate that the curve of the CLGT in China shows a "W-shape", including two transition cycles in 1984–1999 and 1999–2020 and two turning points in 1989 and 2003. The first CLGT in China is a demand-induced passive transition, and the second CLGT is a supply-led initiative transition. There are three paths promoting the CLGT, namely, the institutional path, the emergency path and the reconstruction path. The positive benefits of the first two paths counteract the negative impact of the problem stream and halt the decline in CLG output, and the third path promotes the CLG output increase. Finally, China's CLG has not yet achieved SDG 12. This paper recommends the establishment of a CLG early warning platform and the launch of a Cultivated Land Environmental Quality Incentive Program to promote an increase in the output of CLG in China, and ultimately achieve the Sustainable Development Goals.