Data-Driven Optimised XGBoost for Predicting the Performance of Axial Load Bearing Capacity of Fully Cementitious Grouted Rock Bolting Systems

This article investigates the application of eXtreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) and hybrid metaheuristics optimisation techniques to predict the axial load bearing capacity of fully grouted rock bolting systems. For this purpose, a comprehensive dataset of 72 pull-out tests was built, considering various influential parameters such as three water-to-grout (W/G) ratios, five ranges of curing time (CT), three different grout admixtures with two different fly ash (FA) contents, and two different diameter confinements (DCs). Additionally, to find out the effect of the mechanical behaviour of grouts on the performance of fully grouted rock bolting systems, seventy-two uniaxial compression strength (UCS) samples were cast and tested simultaneously with pull-out samples. The UCS samples were prepared with the same details as the pull-out samples to avoid any inconsistency. The results highlight that peak load values generally increase with longer curing times, lower W/G, and higher UCS and DC values. The main novelty of this paper lies in its data-driven approach, using various XGBoost models. This method offers a time-, cost-, and labour-efficient alternative to traditional experimental methods for predicting rock bolt performance. For this purpose, after building the dataset and dividing it randomly into two training and testing datasets, five different XGBoost models were developed: a standalone XGBoost model and four hybrid models incorporating Harris hawk optimisation (HHO), the jellyfish search optimiser (JSO), the dragonfly algorithm (DA), and the firefly algorithm (FA). These models were subsequently evaluated for their ability to predict peak load values. The results demonstrate that all models effectively predicted peak load values, but the XGBoost-JSO hybrid model demonstrated superior performance, achieving the highest R-squared coefficients of 0.987 and 0.988 for the training and testing datasets, respectively. Sensitivity analysis revealed that UCS values were the most influential parameter, while FA content had the least impact on the maximum peak load values of fully cementitious grouted rock bolts.