Do shoppers choose the same brand on the next trip when facing the same context? An empirical investigation in FMCG retailing

The most basic manifestation of brand loyalty is repurchasing – making the same choice on the next category occasion. This study tests to which extent the stability of contextual cues across purchase occasions affects repurchasing. We investigate these effects by analyzing a total of 1.6 million brand choice pairs (i.e., two consecutive choices) of 20,587 German and 23,036 British shoppers in three FMCG categories. We find that stable contextual cues (same retailer, basket size or weekday as on previous occasions) further repurchasing whereas unstable contextual cues (different retailer, basket size or weekday as on previous occasions, a promotion chosen on one of the occasions or a different assortment size) hinder repurchasing. Furthermore, our results stress the importance of inertia and the power of private labels to foster repurchasing. This study provides generalizable insights regarding trip-to-trip stability in shoppers’ choices, proposes a metric to benchmark brand performance across multiple retail outlets, and pinpoints opportunities for manufacturer-retailer cooperation in order to nurture repurchasing.