温室气体
反刍动物
森林砍伐(计算机科学)
环境科学
持续性
牲畜
原材料
生命周期评估
自然资源经济学
牧场
生产(经济)
经济
生物
农学
生态学
程序设计语言
宏观经济学
计算机科学
作者
Florian Humpenöder,Benjamin Leon Bodirsky,Isabelle Weindl,Hermann Lotze‐Campen,Tomas Linder,Alexander Popp
出处
期刊:Nature
[Springer Nature]
日期:2022-05-04
卷期号:605 (7908): 90-96
被引量:113
标识
DOI:10.1038/s41586-022-04629-w
摘要
Ruminant meat provides valuable protein to humans, but livestock production has many negative environmental impacts, especially in terms of deforestation, greenhouse gas emissions, water use and eutrophication1. In addition to a dietary shift towards plant-based diets2, imitation products, including plant-based meat, cultured meat and fermentation-derived microbial protein (MP), have been proposed as means to reduce the externalities of livestock production3-7. Life cycle assessment (LCA) studies have estimated substantial environmental benefits of MP, produced in bioreactors using sugar as feedstock, especially compared to ruminant meat3,7. Here we present an analysis of MP as substitute for ruminant meat in forward-looking global land-use scenarios towards 2050. Our study complements LCA studies by estimating the environmental benefits of MP within a future socio-economic pathway. Our model projections show that substituting 20% of per-capita ruminant meat consumption with MP globally by 2050 (on a protein basis) offsets future increases in global pasture area, cutting annual deforestation and related CO2 emissions roughly in half, while also lowering methane emissions. However, further upscaling of MP, under the assumption of given consumer acceptance, results in a non-linear saturation effect on reduced deforestation and related CO2 emissions-an effect that cannot be captured with the method of static LCA.
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