Nomogram to predict haemorrhagic transformation after stroke thrombolysis: a combined brain imaging and clinical study

To construct a novel nomogram by integrating computed tomography perfusion (CTP) and clinical parameters for individualised prediction of haemorrhagic transformation (HT) in intravenous thrombolysis (IVT)-treated acute ischaemic stroke (AIS) patients.Anterior circulation AIS patients who underwent IVT at a single centre from January 2018 to June 2020 were reviewed retrospectively. The CTP parameters of two regions of interest (ROI), the entire perfusion lesion areas, and the infract core areas, were assessed. HT was documented by follow-up CT 24 ± 2 h after IVT. Multivariable logistic regression was conducted by including clinical variables and CTP parameters to identify the independent predictors of HT. A nomogram was developed based on the independent predictors. The discriminative value and calibration of the nomogram were tested by concordance indexes (C-indexes) and calibration plots. Internal validation was performed using fivefold cross-validation.The nomogram was generated using the complete data from 341 patients. Seven variables were included in the final nomogram, including: the relative cerebral blood volume (rCBV), permeability surface (PS), and relative PS (rPS) in infract core areas, the relative time to maximum (rTmax) and rPS in entire perfusion lesion areas, the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS), and atrial fibrillation (AF). The C-indexes were 0.815 and 0.817 for the nomogram and internal validation. The calibration plots showed excellent agreement.This is the first study establishing a nomogram based on CTP and clinical parameters to predict HT after stroke thrombolysis.