Crash Risk Prediction Model of Lane-Change Behavior on Approaching Intersections

The driving tendency of drivers is one of the most important factors in lane-changing maneuvers. However, the heterogeneity of the characteristics of drivers’ lane-changing behaviors has not been adequately considered. The primary objective of the present study is to explore the risk level of the lane-changing implementation process under different driving tendencies upon approaching signalized intersections in an urban area. This paper defines the Integrated Conflict Risk Index (ICRI), which takes into account the probability and severity of risk. Using the index as the dependent variable, the risk prediction model of implementing the lane-change process is established. A series of experiments, which included a questionnaire, a number of tests, and on-road experiments, was conducted to identify the driving tendencies of the participants. A combination of video recording and instrumented vehicles was used to collect lane-changing trajectory data of different driving tendencies. The parameters of the model were calibrated, and the results indicate that driving tendency has a significant effect on the risk level of lane-changing execution. More specifically, the more aggressive the driving tendency, the higher the risk level. The quantitative results of the study can provide the basis for conflict risk assessment in the existing lane-changing models.