Predicting the Pharmacokinetics of Orally Administered Drugs across BCS Classes 1–4 by Virtual Bioequivalence Model

To evaluate the influence of solubility and permeability on the pharmacokinetic prediction performance of orally administered drugs using avirtual bioequivalence (VBE) model, a total of 23 orally administered drugs covering Biopharmaceutics Classification System (BCS) classes 1-4 were selected. A VBE model (i.e., a physiologically based pharmacokinetic model integrated with dissolution data) based on a B²O simulator was applied for pharmacokinetic (PK) prediction in a virtual population. Parameter sensitivity analysis was used for input parameter selection. The predictive performances of PK parameters (i.e., AUC_0-t, C_max, and T_max), PK profiles, and bioequivalence (BE) results were evaluated using the twofold error, average fold error (AFE), absolute average fold error (AAFE), and BE reassessment metrics. All models successfully simulated the mean PK profiles, with AAFE < 2 and AFE ranging from 0.58 to 1.66. As for the PK parameters, except for the time of peak concentration, T_max, of isosorbide mononitrate, other simulated PK parameters were all within a twofold error. The simulated PK behaviors were comparable to the observed ones, both for test (T) and reference (R) products, and the simulated T/R arithmetic mean ratios were all within 0.88-1.16 of the observed values. These four evaluation metrics were distributed equally among BCS class 1-4 drugs. The VBE model showed powerful performance to predict the PK behavior of orally administered drugs with various combinations of solubility and permeability, irrespective of the BCS category.