Research on habitat quality in arid urban agglomerations: Influencing mechanisms and multi‐scenario simulations

Abstract In the context of climate change and rapid urbanization, there have been unparalleled changes in land use and land cover (LULC), resulting in substantial impacts on the surrounding habitat quality (HQ), particularly in ecologically vulnerable arid regions. However, previous studies on the influencing mechanisms of HQ in arid urban agglomerations and future multi‐scenario simulations remain limited. To fill this knowledge gap, this study aimed to reveal the influencing mechanisms in HQ changes and to develop a multi‐scenario HQ assessment framework within arid urban agglomerations. We assessed the spatiotemporal variations in HQ using the InVEST model and three periods of LULC data for the urban agglomeration on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains (UANSTM), and the partial least squares structural equation model was introduced to explore the interactions between natural and non‐natural factors and their impacts on HQ. Additionally, we coupled multi‐objective programming and PLUS models to predict the LULC under different optimization scenarios (natural development scenario (NDS), ecological protection scenario (EPS), ecological–economic coordinated scenario, and economic development scenario) for the UANSTM in 2030, and to assess HQ. Results show that (1) the HQ index of the UANSTM was 0.507, 0.520, and 0.495 in 2000, 2010, and 2020 respectively, with a spatial distribution pattern of high values in the west, low values in the east, and high in the central and low in the north and south; (2) geomorphic, climatic, and LULC factors have direct positive effects on HQ, while socio‐economic factors have a direct negative effect on HQ. In addition, geomorphic, socio‐economic, and climatic factors also influence HQ through potential indirect paths. Climatic and LULC factors enhance the positive effect of geomorphic on HQ while counteracting the direct negative effect of socio‐economic factors on HQ. Climatic factors have the largest negative effect on HQ through their influence on LULC; (3) according to the four scenarios in 2030, the highest HQ index (increased by 0.13%) was found under the EPS, which also aligns more closely with SDGs. Conversely, NDS showed the lowest HQ index (declined by 2.59%). The research results could provide a scientific basis for promoting sustainable land management and ecological conservation for the UANSTM.