Digital Economy, Green Innovation Efficiency, and New Quality Productive Forces: Empirical Evidence from Chinese Provincial Panel Data

As a new economic form driven and empowered by digital technology, the development of the digital economy has become a crucial pathway for boosting the advancement of new quality productive forces. This study employs the entropy method to measure the comprehensive evaluation index system for both the digital economy and new quality productive forces and further utilizes the unexpected output super-efficiency model to calculate the green innovation efficiency index. On this basis, panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2012 to 2022 are selected to conduct a quantitative analysis from a multidimensional perspective innovatively, examining the overall, heterogeneous, and spatial effects of the digital economy on new quality productive forces, as well as the mediating, moderated mediating, and threshold effects of green innovation efficiency. The research findings indicate that (1) the digital economy significantly promotes the development of new quality productive forces, and this conclusion is robust; (2) the impact of the digital economy on new quality productive forces exhibits regional heterogeneity; (3) there is a positive spatial spillover effect of the digital economy on new quality productive forces; (4) the digital economy can facilitate the development of new quality productive forces by enhancing green innovation efficiency; (5) industrial structure upgrading moderates the mediating effect of the digital economy on new quality productive forces, specifically regulating the promoting effect of green innovation efficiency on new quality productive forces; and (6) the impact of the digital economy on new quality productive forces exhibits a nonlinear characteristic of “increasing marginal effect”. Consequently, this study proposes targeted suggestions from four dimensions: accelerating the construction of digital infrastructure, vigorously enhancing green innovation efficiency, promoting the deep integration of digitalization and greenization, and facilitating industrial upgrading and coordinated development. These suggestions serve as valuable empirical insights into China’s transformation path selection and sustainable high-quality development in the new era.