Spatial–Temporal Restructuring of Regional Landscape Patterns and Associated Carbon Effects: Evidence from Xiong’an New Area

China’s accelerated urbanization has instigated construction land expansion and ecological land attrition, aggravating the carbon emission disequilibrium. Notably, the “land carbon emission elasticity coefficient” in urban agglomerations far exceeds international benchmarks, underscoring the contradiction between spatial expansion and low-carbon goals. Existing research predominantly centers on single-spatial-type or static-model analyses, lacking cross-scale mechanism exploration, policy heterogeneity consideration, and differentiated carbon metabolism assessment across functional spaces. This study takes Xiong’an New Area as a case, delineating the spatiotemporal evolution of land use and carbon emissions during 2017–2023. Construction land expanded by 26.8%, propelling an 11-fold escalation in carbon emissions, while emission intensity decreased by 11.4% due to energy efficiency improvements and renewable energy adoption. Cultivated land reduction (31.8%) caused a 73.4% decline in agricultural emissions, and ecological land network restructuring (65.3% forest expansion and wetland restoration) significantly enhanced carbon sequestration. This research validates a governance paradigm prioritizing “structural optimization” over “scale expansion”—synergizing construction land intensification with ecological restoration to decelerate emission growth and strengthen carbon sink systems.