Towards disentangling human-induced drivers of precipitation trends from naturally occurring ones

Combining climate models with statistical learning allows an assessment of the relative contributions of different factors to trends in winter precipitation at mid-latitudes. Thermodynamic (non-circulation-related) effects are mostly consistent between models and observations, but whether circulation-related changes are forced or unforced remains unclear. An analysis of climate models reveals the roles of internal variability and forced-circulation-induced precipitation trends.