Drivers of Vegetation Cover and Carbon Sink Dynamics in Abandoned Shaoyang City Open-Pit Coal Mines

As an important coal-producing region in China, open-pit coal mining in Shaoyang, Hunan Province, has a significant impact on the ecological environment. This study focuses on the three major open-pit mining areas in the city, utilizing remote sensing data from 1998 to 2024. By calculating the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and fractional vegetation cover (FVC), and combining climate factors such as temperature and precipitation with Net Primary Productivity (NPP), this study analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of vegetation cover and carbon sinks, and explores the impact of climate and environmental policies on vegetation recovery. The study employed trend analysis and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model predictions, which showed that vegetation cover in the mining areas decreased overall from 1998 to 2011, gradually recovered after 2011, and reached a relatively high level by 2024. Changes in carbon sinks were consistent with the trends in vegetation cover. Spatially, the north mining area experienced the most severe vegetation degradation in the early stages, the middle area recovered earliest, and the south area had the fastest vegetation cover recovery rate. Climate factors had a certain influence on vegetation recovery, but precipitation, temperature, and FVC showed no significant correlation. The study indicates that vegetation recovery in mining areas is jointly influenced by mining intensity, climate conditions, and policy interventions, with geological environment management policies in Hunan mining areas playing a key role in promoting vegetation recovery.