Predictors of upper limb spasticity after stroke? A systematic review and meta-analysis

To determine the predictive markers for the occurrence of upper limb spasticity in the first 12 months after stroke.A systematic review was undertaken of the databases MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL and PEDRO to 31st December 2017.Non-experimental or experimental studies that included a control group with spasticity who did not receive an experimental intervention which investigated at least one variable (explanatory variable) measured at baseline against the development (or not) of spasticity at a future time point within 12 months post stroke were selected independently by two reviewers. Eleven papers met the selection criteria.Data were extracted into tabular format using predefined data fields by two reviewers. Study quality was evaluated using the modified Downs and Black tool. Data were analysed using a meta-analysis or narrative review.Ten studies, including 856 participants were analysed. The predictive markers of upper limb spasticity at one month post stroke were: motor 11.25 (odds ratio, OR); [95% CI:2.48, 51.04] and sensory impairments 4.91 (OR); [1.24, 19.46]; haemorrhagic stroke 3.70 (OR); [1.05, 12.98] and age 0.01 (OR) [0.00, 69.89]. Only motor impairment was found as a significant predictor at six months post stroke 30.68 (OR); [1.60, 587.06].Low number of studies exploring biomechanical and neurophysiological in addition to behavioural predictors of spasticity were included.Using the results, the identified predictive markers have potential to better inform clinical decision-making and to plan specific rehabilitation interventions by physiotherapists for stroke survivors with upper limb spasticity. Systematic Review Registration Number PROSPERO (ID: CRD42016027642).