Decomposition of carbon emission and its decoupling analysis and prediction with economic development: A case study of industrial sectors in Henan Province

The carbon emission from major sectors and key industries is the main source of regional carbon emission, which has caused severe climate anomalies. Decoupling analysis and prediction of carbon emissions are helpful to formulate effective carbon emission reduction targets and coordinate the relationship between carbon emission and economic development. Considering the differences between sectors, this paper selects 12 major industrial carbon emitting sectors in Henan Province as the research object, decomposes the carbon emission driving factors by Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method, analyzes the decoupling relationship of carbon emission and economic development by Tapio decoupling model, constructs a decoupling effort model by combining the LMDI method and Tapio decoupling model to analyze the influence of each effect on the decoupling relationship, and sets up baseline scenario, low carbon scenario and enhanced low carbon scenario to forecast carbon emission and its decoupling state with economic development by the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system (LEAP) model. It is concluded that the restraining effects of energy structure, energy intensity and industrial structure are increasing. The decoupling index between carbon emission and economic development of 12 sectors shows a downward trend. Both energy structure effect and energy intensity effect have made weak decoupling efforts, and the decoupling efforts of industrial structure effect were relatively small, especially in Ferrous metal smelting and calendering industry and other five sectors. In 2035, four sectors will achieve carbon neutralization and the overall decoupling effect of carbon emissions will be obvious. Finally, this paper puts forward some recommendations to promote carbon emission reduction.