A New Forecasting Method for Production with Changing of Water-cut at the Water Flooding Stage

The factors of production decline are different at the reservoir development stages,and water cut is more influence on the production at the flooding stage.Based on the trend analysis of the product of the three,water-cut,oil-bearing,and cumulative production fluid,we form a new forecasting method of reservoir production at the flooding stage,combining the calculation of reasonable injection-production ratio and the water-cut optimization of the stage.This method supports the development of adjustment for reservoir without numerical simulation in practice.