Water–energy–food nexus security and new quality productive forces in China: Coupling coordination and drivers

• Propose an Availability-Accessibility-Affordability-Acceptability-Sustainability (5AS) framework for evaluating WEF Nexus Security. • Develop a systematic coupling coordination model between WEF Nexus and New Quality Productive Forces. • Uncover nonlinear driving mechanisms of coupled systems through machine learning. • Formulate differentiated development strategies addressing regional heterogeneity. Natural resources underpin the development of New Quality Productive Forces (NQPF) by providing essential elements and spatial foundations, whereas NQPF acts as the primary engine for the sustainable use of these resources. However, the coordinated advancement of both represents a crucial, yet underexplored, research topic. This paper pioneers a theoretical framework for the coupled system encompassing the Water-Energy-Food (WEF) Nexus and NQPF. Employing methods including Game Theory Combination Weighting, the Coupling Coordination Degree Model (CCDM), and Machine Learning (ML) models, we analyze the spatio-temporal characteristics of the coupling coordination between China's WEF Nexus security and NQPF development from 2012 to 2022, along with the driving mechanisms underlying their spatial variations. Key findings reveal: (1) A consistent upward trend in the coupling coordination degree (CCD) of the provincial WEF Nexus-NQPF system in China between 2012 and 2022, with the spatial pattern of coordination levels evolving through "core-periphery" leaps and clustering. (2) By constructing an evaluation framework incorporating resource availability, economic affordability, social acceptability, resource accessibility, and environmental sustainability, this study offers systematic insights for WEF Nexus security research that move beyond isolated assessments. (3) Based on the analysis of region-specific driving mechanisms, targeted development strategies are proposed for different regions to enhance the system's coupling coordination. This research provides valuable insights for promoting synergistic development between the WEF Nexus-NQPF system and high-quality development goals, harmonizing human-environment interactions, and contributing to the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals.