Development and validation of a novel nomogram for predicting overall survival patients with neuroblastoma

Abstract

Purpose

The aim of this study was to develop a nomogram specially for predicting overall survival (OS) for Chinese patients with neuroblastoma (NB).

Methods

Patients with pathologically confirmed NB who were newly diagnosed and received treatments at our hospital from October 2013 to October 2021 were retrospectively reviewed. The nomogram for OS were built based on Cox regression analysis. The validation of the prognostic model was evaluated by concordance index (C-index), calibration curves, and decision curve analyses (DCAs).

Results

A total of 254 patients with NB were included in this study. They were randomly divided into a training cohort (n = 178) and a validation cohort (n = 76) at a ratio of 7:3. Multivariate analyses revealed that prognostic variables significantly related to the OS were age at diagnosis, bone metastasis, hepatic metastasis, INSS stage, MYCN status and DNA ploidy. The nomogram was constructed based on above 6 factors. The C-index values of the nomogram for predicting 3-year and 5-year OS were 0.926 and 0.964, respectively. The calibration curves of the nomogram showed good consistency between nomogram prediction and actual survival. The DCAs showed great clinical usefulness of the nomograms. Furthermore, patients with low-risk identified by our nomogram had much higher OS than those with high-risk (p < 0.001).

Conclusion

The nomogram we constructed exhibited good predictive performance and could be used to assist clinicians in their decision-making process.