Frequency distribution of error messages

Which programming error messages are the most common? We investigate this question, motivated by writing error explanations for novices. We consider large data sets in Python and Java that include both syntax and run-time errors. In both data sets, after grouping essentially identical messages, the error message frequencies empirically resemble Zipf-Mandelbrot distributions. We use a maximum-likelihood approach to fit the distribution parameters. This gives one possible way to contrast languages or compilers quantitatively.