Predicted contraction in the distribution of Lauraceae caused by climate change: a Sumatran case study

Context Trees in the family Lauraceae have high commercial value due to their aromatic properties and oil. Despite this, many species within the family are understudied. The Lauraceae is globally distributed, with Indonesia having high species richness, especially in Sumatra. However, specific Lauraceae hotspots have yet to be identified. Habitat destruction resulting in tree loss has become a serious threat to the survival of the Lauraceae. Furthermore, climate change is expected to negatively impact suitable habitat that currently sustains these populations, yet the underlying ecological processes are poorly understood. Aims We aimed to identify current Lauraceae hotspots and model the impact of climate change on the Lauraceae distribution in Sumatra using a MaxEnt algorithm-based approach. Methods A Getis ord Gi* analysis was used to identify which areas in West Sumatra were current hotspots of Lauraceae. A modelling approach was used to predict the future distribution of this family under both best-and worst-case scenarios (SSP 1.2-6 and SSP 5.8-5). Key results Current Lauracaea distribution hotspots were identified in West Sumatra and the family’s range was expected to contract under both predicted climate change scenarios. Conclusions While distribution loss under the best-case scenario was less than under the worst-case scenario, the predicted contraction in the family’s distribution is a concern for its future persistence in the wild. Implications This study indicates where conservation strategies may be best applied to protect the Lauraceae from extinction in Sumatra.