Star Wars: Anti-Satellite Weapons and Orbital Debris

The militarization and weaponization of outer space are increasing continuously with the development of new and more advanced space weapon systems by a growing number of nations. This is a direct consequence of the high and growing strategic value of outer space for defense, security, and warfare. This paper reviews trends in space weapon systems and analyzes the implications of anti-satellite military weapons for human activities in outer space. A direct consequence of the completion of anti-satellite military tests is that the amount of orbital debris has increased significantly. We use a simple physical – economic model to illustrate how anti-satellite military tests, particularly those using direct-ascent weapons, dramatically increase the probability that the Kessler syndrome will occur. Whereas the long-run impact of low altitude anti-satellite tests is limited because of atmospheric drag, at high altitude direct-ascent anti-satellite tests are persistently harmful for human activities in space. The paper also provides a simulation of the long-run effects of a war in space.