Population Ecology-Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) Model for Antibiotic-Resistant and Susceptible E. coli in Recreational Water

Understanding and predicting the role of waterborne environments in transmitting antimicrobial-resistant (AMR) infections are critical for public health. A population ecology-quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) model is proposed to evaluate urinary tract infection (UTI) development due to recreational waterborne exposures to Escherichia coli (E. coli) and antibiotic-resistant extended-spectrum β-lactamase-producing (ESBL) E. coli. The horizontal gene transfer (HGT) mechanism of conjugation and other evolutionary factors were modeled separately in the environment and the gut. Persistence/dilution dominated HGT in the environment; however, HGT highly impacted predicted ESBL populations in the body. Predicted disability life year (DALY) risks from exposure to ESBL E. coli at concentrations consistent with US recreational water criteria were less than the 10-6 pppy benchmark value but greater than the susceptible E. coli DALY risks associated with a UTI health outcome. However, the prevailing susceptible dose-response relationship may underestimate ESBL risk if HGT rates in vivo approach those reported in vitro. A sensitivity analysis demonstrated that DALY values, E. coli/ESBL concentrations, and exposure parameters were influential on predicted risks. The model is a preliminary tool to begin the expansion of the QMRA paradigm to explore the impacts of evolutionary changes in AMR risk assessment.