贝叶斯概率
先验与后验
计算机科学
概率分布
统计模型
先验概率
数学
数学优化
统计
机器学习
人工智能
哲学
认识论
作者
James L. Beck,Lambros S. Katafygiotis
出处
期刊:Journal of Engineering Mechanics-asce
[American Society of Civil Engineers]
日期:1998-04-01
卷期号:124 (4): 455-461
被引量:1175
标识
DOI:10.1061/(asce)0733-9399(1998)124:4(455)
摘要
The problem of updating a structural model and its associated uncertainties by utilizing dynamic response data is addressed using a Bayesian statistical framework that can handle the inherent ill-conditioning and possible nonuniqueness in model updating applications. The objective is not only to give more accurate response predictions for prescribed dynamic loadings but also to provide a quantitative assessment of this accuracy. In the methodology presented, the updated (optimal) models within a chosen class of structural models are the most probable based on the structural data if all the models are equally plausible a priori. The prediction accuracy of the optimal structural models is given by also updating probability models for the prediction error. The precision of the parameter estimates of the optimal structural models, as well as the precision of the optimal prediction-error parameters, can be examined. A large-sample asymptotic expression is given for the updated predictive probability distribution of the uncertain structural response, which is a weighted average of the predictive probability distributions for each optimal model. This predictive distribution can be used to make model predictions despite possible nonuniqueness in the optimal models.
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