Undetectable circulating tumor DNA levels correlate with low risk of recurrence/metastasis in postoperative pathologic stage I lung adenocarcinoma patients

Objectives The application of circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) monitoring after resection in pathologic(p) stage I lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) patients remains controversial and it is of great clinical interest to decipher the difference of genetic features between ground-glass opacity (GGO) and solid nodules (non-GGO) subgroups. We aim to assess the utility of ctDNA in tracking early recurrence or metastasis following surgery and reveal the genetic differences between GGO and non-GGO. Materials and methods Tumor tissues and matched postoperative plasma samples were collected from a total of 82 (p)stage I LUAD patients. Comprehensive genomic profiling was performed using capture-based hybrid next generation sequencing by targeting 422 cancer relevant genes. Results EGFR and TP53 represent commonly mutated genes in this cohort of (p)stage I lung adenocarcinoma, followed by alterations in ALK, PIK3CA, STK11 and MYC. For a median follow-up period of 22.83 months after surgery, 65 out of 67 ctDNA-negative patients remained progression-free, while 3 out of 15 ctDNA-positive patients progressed [P = 0.040; positive predictive value = 0.20, 95 % confidence interval (CI), 0.04−0.48; negative predictive value = 0.97, 95 % CI, 0.9–1]. With time-dependent Cox regression analysis, we observed that ctDNA positivity significantly correlated with increased probability of early tumor recurrence or metastasis (P = 0.02, HR=8.5). Further comparison between GGO and non-GGO subgroups indicated the frequency of TP53 mutations in non-GGO was markedly higher than that in GGO (47 % vs 21 %, P < 0.05). Pathway analysis showed the epigenetic regulation pathway was more frequently affected in GGO subgroup, while impaired apoptosis/cell cycle pathway was more enriched in non-GGO LUADs. Conclusions Our longitudinal ctDNA monitoring data showed that undetectable ctDNA may predict low risk of tumor recurrence or metastasis in postoperative (p)stage I LUAD patients, while it requires further investigation on how robust the positive ctDNA results could predict tumor relapse in these patients. Clinical registration number NCT03172156.